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stockout riskawaiting approvalCASE-AL-LAH-06-AL-MW-1673

Oxford Blazer 873 projected to stock out at Aurum Living Lahore Branch 6 in 11 days

Selling faster than replenishment can arrive — stock will run out first.

PKR 40,566
margin at risk
Confidence
62%
Urgency
49%
Approver
Regional Operations Director
Data
Partly stale

Likely explanation

  • Recent sales are running ahead of the replenishment cycle
    70% confidence · 100% of the gap

Options

What each choice is worth, including doing nothing.

Expedite the outstanding supplier orderrecommendedPKR 30,907
cost PKR 61,000 · 54% confidence · 96h to execute
Do nothing-PKR 40,566
cost PKR 0 · 90% confidence · 0h to execute

Decision

Genaima recommends that you Expedite the outstanding supplier order.

Unsure flags this for a second look — the case stays open.

Evidence

  • 1.79 units/day over 28 days
  • 19 on hand, 0 inbound
  • 0 overdue purchase order(s)

Constraints checked

  • ✓source must retain 28 days of cover
  • ✓must arrive within 11 days

Value trail

  • identifiedPKR 40,566
    How this is calculated
    Value trail — identified
    Formula

    Σ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'identified' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa

    Inputs
    value_ledger.amount_paisa
    PKR 40,566
    decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa
    PKR 40,566
    Value on this screen
    PKR 40,566
    Sources
    • value_ledger
    • decision_case
  • recommendedPKR 30,907
    How this is calculated
    Value trail — recommended
    Formula

    Σ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'recommended' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against the recommended option's expectedValue.amountPaisa

    Inputs
    value_ledger.amount_paisa
    PKR 30,907
    decision_case.doc.options[].expectedValue.amountPaisa
    PKR 30,907
    Value on this screen
    PKR 30,907
    Sources
    • value_ledger
    • decision_case

Activity

Full history (5)
  • detected → validating · system:orchestrator
    evidence accepted
  • validating → investigating · system:orchestrator
    evidence accepted
  • investigating → planning · system:orchestrator
    evidence accepted
  • planning → critiquing · system:orchestrator
    evidence accepted
  • critiquing → awaiting_approval · system:orchestrator
    evidence accepted