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stockout riskclosedCASE-H-012

Restock rejected — Cloud Quilt Cover 736 at Aurum Living Islamabad Branch 2

Selling faster than replenishment can arrive — stock will run out first.

PKR 4,256
margin at risk
Confidence
82%
Urgency
50%
Approver
Regional Operations Director
Data
Up to date

Likely explanation

  • Sales ran ahead of the replenishment cycle
    70% confidence

Options

What each choice is worth, including doing nothing.

Expedite replenishment of Cloud Quilt Cover 736 to Aurum Living Islamabad Branch 2recommendedPKR 3,865
cost PKR 386 · 80% confidence · 96h to execute
Do nothing-PKR 4,256
cost PKR 0 · 90% confidence · 0h to execute

Decision

Genaima recommends that you Expedite replenishment of Cloud Quilt Cover 736 to Aurum Living Islamabad Branch 2.

This case is closed — decisions are recorded once and cannot be replayed.

Evidence

  • impact PKR 4,256, backfilled from the bottleneck table for the quarter before 2026-08-04

Constraints checked

  • ✓replenishment fits inside the cover window

Value trail

  • identifiedPKR 4,256
    How this is calculated
    Value trail — identified
    Formula

    Σ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'identified' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa

    Inputs
    value_ledger.amount_paisa
    PKR 4,256
    decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa
    PKR 4,256
    Value on this screen
    PKR 4,256
    Sources
    • value_ledger
    • decision_case
  • recommendedPKR 3,865
    How this is calculated
    Value trail — recommended
    Formula

    Σ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'recommended' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against the recommended option's expectedValue.amountPaisa

    Inputs
    value_ledger.amount_paisa
    PKR 3,865
    decision_case.doc.options[].expectedValue.amountPaisa
    PKR 3,865
    Value on this screen
    PKR 3,865
    Sources
    • value_ledger
    • decision_case

Activity

Full history (7)
  • detected → validating · system:orchestrator
    evidence accepted
  • validating → investigating · system:orchestrator
    root cause traced to the replenishment cycle running behind sales
  • investigating → planning · system:orchestrator
    restock option priced against do nothing
  • planning → critiquing · system:orchestrator
    option survived critique
  • critiquing → awaiting_approval · system:orchestrator
    recommendation put to the approver
  • awaiting_approval → rejected · A. Siddiqui, Regional Operations Director
    store team had already run a local markdown on the line
  • rejected → closed · system:orchestrator
    case closed after rejection